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Overheard and Observed in China: Part 1: The Economy

I just returned from a way-too-short and rapid trip to China. There are so many angles and facets to explore but for a Part 1, I thought I’d focus on some interesting economic dynamics in China that are highly interrelated with some equally interesting dynamics in the U.S. economy.

As context, note that the overarching paradox of trading with China from a U.S. standpoint is (a) we like China’s cheap costs but (b) we don’t like the trade gap. The burgeoning trade gap is particularly bothersome as the U.S. dollar continues to free fall in the international currency markets, which should make buying U.S. products more attractive than ever. But the trade deficet is going to be a side light and what U.S. businesses and consumers are really going to notice in the near and foreseeable future is that costs in China are on the raise and may increase at a more rapid pace. Here’s why:

1. We’re not the only ones that dislike a huge trade gap; for China’s economy to mature, more of its output needs to be consumed internally, not just by the export market. Toward that end, in the last ninety days Beijing has rescinded a substantial tax rebate (think subsidy) for factories and business that export their goods. That will no longer be part of the formula for quoting costs to U.S. companies that outsource to China.

2. The RMB (China’s currency) is up 20% against the U.S. dollar in the last 18 months. The renmimbi (“people’s currency”) is stronger across against many currencies on the international board, but with the ongoing storyline of a still declining U.S. dollar and its spending power, the bottom line result is higher costs.

3. New labor laws in China include new increases to the minimum wage and a sweeping worker reform act–no company can fire a worker once they sign a third employment contract–equals raising labor costs. On the second element, the reform act, one wonders if most Chinese laborers will now end up working for a new company every four years as many labor contracts are two year deals. Not even an almost limitless labor pool can hold back the simple reality that conditions for workers–from wages to safe working conditions to better factory-owned dormitories or private housing options–have improved and must continue to improve. Some have argued that with the reported 750 million unemployed workers this need not be the case. But what has changed is that people living a subsistance lifestyle in the great rural expanses of China are no longer willing to trade an open air work day for a factory work day that is still based on mere subsistance worker benefits.

4. Rising materials costs are happening across most industry categories, led by rocketing oil prices, but in my world, publishing, it comes as no surprise that the cost of paper keeps marching upward at a particularly steep grade. U.S. standards of “green” are much less stringent than those defined in Europe, but as that gap closes, costs will only continue to climb. Related but off topic: Bill Gates said that we tend to overestimate the impact of new technology over the next two years but underestimate its impact over the next five years (see Business at the Speed of Thought). I wonder: will there be a stampede to ebook readers in the next half decade?

5. When you add up nos. 1-4, not surprising but largely unnoticed in the business community, hundreds of Chinese factories are closing every month. Profit margins and Return on Investment (ROI) are so slim that the Chinese entrepreneurial class is looking for new and greener opportunities. Marching alongside the issue of ROI , the first true generation of entrepreneurs in China is hitting retirement age and the heirs don’t want to run factories–or in some cases can’t afford to run existing operations–so they’re selling off equipment and boarding up buildings. Some argue that this is simple Economic Darwinism and is a positive case of natural selection with inefficient operations falling by the wayside. Perhaps; but it should not come as a shock that as once or emerging third world economies develop, they no longer take on environmentally toxic projects with no questions asked.

Two questions that I predict will become more acute for U.S. (and world) companies that do manufacturing in China in the days ahead will be: are we anticipating and ready for continued rising costs? and are the vendors we are currently relying on going to be in business for the foreseeable future?
Stay tuned for Part 2 of things I observed and overheard in China …

Overheard and Observed in China: Part 2: The Dalai Lama

There is something surreal about opening the morning newspaper at the breakfast table in your hotel each day and reading a polar-opposite, diametrically opposed point of view on an issue that perhaps you haven’t given much thought to–at least I hadn’t–but that you already know the answer to because it is so universally accepted in the media pool in which you swim.

One topic that jumped off the pages of the China Daily (the national English language newspaper of China) with a clang and a bang for me was the different perspective on the Dalai Lama, who is also on the front page of many Western newspapers, particularly in the wake of protests that accompany the Olympic Torch each step of its trek to Beijing for opening ceremonies. Oh, and that March 14 riot thing in Lhasa, Tibet, which included monks. Maybe. (Not “maybe” on the riot but on whether the monks were monks or soldiers dressed as monks.)

Here are just a few of the juxtapositions:

Western View: Tibet was a free country since a treaty that ended 200 years of fighting was ratified in 821 A.D., but was forcibly seized and annexed by China as part of Mao Zedong’s 1950 invasion with the People’s Liberation Army that was ratified under coercion in 1951. China View: Yes, Tibet and China separated in 821 A.D., but Tibet became an intrinsic part of China between the 13th and 15th Centuries in response to Mongolian invasions; China was granted formal sovereignty in 1751 to protect Tibet from the Nepalese Gurkha invasions.

Western View: The Independent Tibet movement rectifies historical injustices by returning sovereignty to the Tibetan people. China View: There is no historical validity to a Greater Tibet, administratively, religiously, and especially ethnically–at least 10 other groups have been living on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for generations, including Han, Hi, Mongolian, Tu, Monba, and Lhoba.

Western View: China wants to suppress religious expression in Tibet. China View: China has shown more than 50 years of restraint and respect on Tibetan culture, particularly in regards to religion. In fact, all of China is prospering and experiencing new freedoms, including speech and religion, to a much greater degree than Tibet, with its theocratic leanings.

Western View: The Dalai Lama is a man of peace and goodwill. China View: The Dalai Lama is a political operator–and sometimes instigator–who was part of theocratic feudal regime that enslaved and impoverished the Tibetan population; nobles and senior monks owned and controlled 90% of the land.

Western View: On March 14, awakening echoes of Tienanmen Square, the Chinese government once again crushed a peaceful demonstration of people who seek freedom. China View: The Tibetan Government in Exile, with the fundraising savvy and organizational skills of the international “Dalai clique” orchestrated a violent riot that resulted in $35 million (U.S.) in damage.

I spoke with one U.S. businessman who has lived in Hong Kong for a number of years and he commented:

Maybe I’ve lived here too long and have been brainwashed, but I’m no longer convinced that the Chinese government is all wrong on this Tibet issue and, in fact, may do more for the everyday Tibetan people than the separatist movement. For example, the government in exile has no plans on accommodating a multi-ethnic population.

So has he been brainwashed? The obvious answer is, yes, of course he has–and it’s tied to the simple notion that the official Chinese media can’t be trusted to produce anything more than propaganda. I’m glad that I don’t have to worry about that danger in America because I have objective, reliable, and trustworthy news sources like The New York Times to protect me. Okay, cheap shot. But there is a strong resentment in China that they aren’t getting a fair trial in the international court of opinion. A Western expatriate made this statement:

The official Chinese media may be clumsy, but at least they are not as hypocritical as the Western media which always claims to be impartial, yet are actually biased on many issues related to China … and in their own countries!

Well, I’m no expert on Chinese politics, but this exercise has helped me come to one iron-clad conclusion: to fight media bias on the issues near and dear to my heart, I’m going to hire the PR firm the Dalai Lama uses, not the one the Chinese government has on retainer.

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Will Samsung Save the Nook?

The new Galaxy Tab 4 Nook comes with $250 in free downloads.

The new Galaxy Tab 4 Nook comes with $250 in free downloads.

Will Samsung save the Nook?

The good news from Barnes & Noble for the first quarter of Fiscal 2015 that ended August 2, 2014, was that book retailer cut losses from $87m to $28m compared to the same period a year ago. The bad news was that overall revenues had dropped 7% from $1.33b to $1.22b. Worse yet, Nook sales were off a staggering 54%.

Does that signal the end of Nook?

Barnes & Noble launched its first Nook reader in November 2009 to compete with the Kindle. A year later B&N released a color tablet called the Nook HD+. In both releases, sales and performance exceeded all expectations. Consensus was the Nook device would allow B&N to finally challenge Amazon in the digital book distribution world. A few tech journalists were impressed enough to predict the Nook HD+ could compete with the iPad. But that was way back in the day when the tablet was still in its infancy. [Read more…]

13 Ways for An Author to Use Google Tools

13 ways for an author to use google tools.

Google is a powerful company with powerful tools that can enhance an author’s productivity and final product.

I have come up with 13 ways for an author to use Google tools that will enhance your productivity and the final product. I first wrote about writers using Google in 2012. But Google’s array of tools has grown and my needs as an author continue to morph, so I realized it was time for a new list. As you read through my list of both obvious and clever ways to put Google to work for you as an author, keep an open mind that you may have 13 additional ideas. Feel free to share!

  1. Share and Collaborate. Move your working manuscript to Google Drive and then send a simple invitation to select collaborators, editors, and reviewers to give them access to the latest version of your work. You can easily define what permission level they have when they open the document. You can limit reviewers to read-only or give an editor full editing rights. I was recently working on a trade manuscript with an author from another country and got a pleasant surprise. As I went to add a paragraph on a chapter we had discussed via email I was able to watch her computer keystrokes as she edited the same chapter. I thought that was cool.
  2. Schedule. You can obviously use Google Calendar to schedule your workflow. But Google Calendar and other calendar apps enable you to set up multiple and specialized calendars. A couple of years ago I began the practice of establishing a new calendar to nail down the times, days, weeks, and months of events while writing a novel. That saved me countless hours of editing by keeping me from mixing up the timeline of a tight plot.
  3. Search. Google Search has competition from Microsoft Bing and other powerful search engines, but Google is still king of finding information, details, images, and history on just about anything and everything you ever wanted or needed to know. How many hours of work in a reference library would it take to find what pops up on page one of a Google Search in seconds?
  4. Research. Everyone knows about Google Search. But what about Google Research, which employs the Google Books data base? The ubiquitous company has currently scanned and digitized close to 35 million books—with the goal of completing that task with all 130 unique books in the world by the end of the decade. The Google Books program is controversial and debated vigorously by authors, librarians, publishers, literary agents, and intellectual property rights attorneys. But no matter what topic you are writing on—from 16th Century Huguenots to 21st Century Japanese business management—you can use the research feature to find primary and secondary source material from seminal books. Go a level deeper into the Google vault and discover there are specialized search engines for scholarly works, blogs, patents, finance, and more.
  5. Translate. Want to add some savoire faire to your book with a couple of phrases in Spanish, Italian, French, German, Russian or one of the 85 other languages on Google Translate? Don’t worry if you haven’t loaded the alphabet for Mandarin Chinese in your font files. An English transliteration of the word or phrase is provided alongside the indigenous alphabet.
  6. Blog. I started my blogs on Google Blogger because it was easy to use and free. Blogger doesn’t have nearly as many widgets as Word Press and other site builders, so it isn’t as versatile. Surprisingly, the SEO isn’t rated as high on Blogger as it is on Word Press, which is why I migrated my combination web and blog site to Word Press last year. I’m not positive I am getting that many new visitors to my sites with the improved SEO and there have been more than a few days when I wish Word Press was as easy to adjust and fine tune as Blogger. Google Blogger is not a bad starting point. Click the link above and I outline the pros and cons of migrating.
  7. Promote. There are many ways to promote yourself and your work online, with plenty of debate and discussion on what works best for building an author platform. You can set up a small budget for a trial run with Google Ads or use the various free platforms Google offers like YouTube and Google Plus.
  8. Map. Writing a novel set in Chicago (where you used to live) while you are living in Nashville? Yep. That’s one of the things I do. It’s nice to map out scenes and events with up-to-date locations, routes, buildings, and markers using Google Map. Want a birds eye view? Get on Google Earth and hover over the setting you are describing in your book. That does sound a little creepy but you don’t have to work for the NSA to see where things are.
  9. Trends. What is on people’s minds? Google Trends doesn’t claim to practice ESP but Google is the undisputed champion of collecting, sorting, analyzing, and sharing big data. Check into the Google Trends tab for help on blog, posting, and twitter ideas—and maybe even your next book idea. Trends will show you what people are searching for throughout the world, broken down by territory, medium, and categories.
  10. Ideas. Google Keep helps you save and organize as many ideas as you can think of as a writer and human being. I use Evernote for similar purpose so I haven’t kicked the tires to check the various features and efficacy of Google Keep. If you have or decide to, let me know how it works for you.
  11. Feedback. Google Forms will build a survey for you for free. I have a Survey Monkey account so I can’t offer firsthand testimony of the advantages or disadvantages of what you can build and broadcast on Google. Again, feedback welcome!
  12. Monetize. If you put Google AdSense on your blog or website, Google will pay you on the basis of your followers clicking the ads on your site. How many clicks before the money starts rolling in? Let’s just say this needs to be considered a blue-sky income stream that will finally click in after you’ve sold a couple million books and don’t need the advertising revenue anymore! Why not? Adding the code snippet to your site is easy.
  13. Analyze. Google Analytics provides a wealth of information on who visits your website, where they come from, how long they stay, what they look at, what links they click, and more. If you use your website to promote your books, this is a must to help you shape your messaging around what actually gets a response.

There are a lot more Google tools I’m not getting into. They have a business suite that provides Microsoft equivalents for Word, PowerPoint, Excel, Outlook, and more—but I like Microsoft productivity tools a lot and can’t commit to trying and learning something that might not have all that I want. As I said up front, my 13 ways for an author to use Google tools might be a jumping off point to help you brainstorm.

The point is, Google is a powerful company with powerful tools that can be used, usually for free, by authors to enhance productivity and even the final product. Writing is a hard, time-consuming labor of love (except when we hate it). Make sure you are using the resources that are as close as your fingertips.